What to do if your p-value is just over the arbitrary threshold for ‘significance’ of p=0.05?

You don’t need to play the significance testing game – there are better methods, like quoting the effect size with a confidence interval – but if you do, the rules are simple: the result is either significant or it isn’t.

So if your p-value remains stubbornly higher than 0.05, you should call it ‘non-significant’ and write it up as such. The problem for many authors is that this just isn’t the answer they were looking for: publishing so-called ‘negative results’ is harder than ‘positive results’.

The solution is to apply the time-honoured tactic of circumlocution to disguise the non-significant result as something more interesting. The following list is culled from peer-reviewed journal articles in which (a) the authors set themselves the threshold of 0.05 for significance, (b) failed to achieve that threshold value for p and (c) described it in such a way as to make it seem more interesting.

As well as being statistically flawed (results are either significant or not and can’t be qualified), the wording is linguistically interesting, often describing an aspect of the result that just doesn’t exist. For example, “a trend towards significance” expresses non-significance as some sort of motion towards significance, which it isn’t: there is no ‘trend’, in any direction, and nowhere for the trend to be ‘towards’.

Some further analysis will follow, but for now here is the list in full (UPDATE: now in alpha-order):

(barely) not statistically significant (p=0.052)

a barely detectable statistically significant difference (p=0.073)

a borderline significant trend (p=0.09)

a certain trend toward significance (p=0.08)

a clear tendency to significance (p=0.052)

a clear trend (p<0.09)

a clear, strong trend (p=0.09)

a considerable trend toward significance (p=0.069)

a decreasing trend (p=0.09)

a definite trend (p=0.08)

a distinct trend toward significance (p=0.07)

a favorable trend (p=0.09)

a favourable statistical trend (p=0.09)

a little significant (p<0.1)

a margin at the edge of significance (p=0.0608)

a marginal trend (p=0.09)

a marginal trend toward significance (p=0.052)

a marked trend (p=0.07)

a mild trend (p<0.09)

a moderate trend toward significance (p=0.068)

a near-significant trend (p=0.07)

a negative trend (p=0.09)

a nonsignificant trend (p<0.1)

a nonsignificant trend toward significance (p=0.1)

a notable trend (p<0.1)

a numerical increasing trend (p=0.09)

a numerical trend (p=0.09)

a positive trend (p=0.09)

a possible trend (p=0.09)

a possible trend toward significance (p=0.052)

a pronounced trend (p=0.09)

a reliable trend (p=0.058)

a robust trend toward significance (p=0.0503)

a significant trend (p=0.09)

a slight slide towards significance (p<0.20)

a slight tendency toward significance(p<0.08)

a slight trend (p<0.09)

a slight trend toward significance (p=0.098)

a slightly increasing trend (p=0.09)

a small trend (p=0.09)

a statistical trend (p=0.09)

a statistical trend toward significance (p=0.09)

a strong tendency towards statistical significance (p=0.051)

a strong trend (p=0.077)

a strong trend toward significance (p=0.08)

a substantial trend toward significance (p=0.068)

a suggestive trend (p=0.06)

a trend close to significance (p=0.08)

a trend significance level (p=0.08)

a trend that approached significance (p<0.06)

a very slight trend toward significance (p=0.20)

a weak trend (p=0.09)

a weak trend toward significance (p=0.12)

a worrying trend (p=0.07)

all but significant (p=0.055)

almost achieved significance (p=0-065)

almost approached significance (p=0.065)

almost attained significance (p<0.06)

almost became significant (p=0.06)

almost but not quite significant (p=0.06)

almost clinically significant (p<0.10)

almost insignificant (p>0.065)

almost marginally significant (p>0.05)

almost non-significant (p=0.083)

almost reached statistical significance (p=0.06)

almost significant (p=0.06)

almost significant tendency (p=0.06)

almost statistically significant (p=0.06)

an adverse trend (p=0.10)

an apparent trend (p=0.286)

an associative trend (p=0.09)

an elevated trend (p<0.05)

an encouraging trend (p<0.1)

an established trend (p<0.10)

an evident trend (p=0.13)

an expected trend (p=0.08)

an important trend (p=0.066)

an increasing trend (p<0.09)

an interesting trend (p=0.1)

an inverse trend toward signiﬁcance (p=0.06)

an observed trend (p=0.06)

an obvious trend (p=0.06)

an overall trend (p=0.2)

an unexpected trend (p=0.09)

an unexplained trend (p=0.09)

an unfavorable trend (p<0.10)

appeared to be marginally significant (p<0.10)

approached acceptable levels of statistical significance (p=0.054)

approached but did not quite achieve significance (p>0.05)

approached but fell short of significance (p=0.07)

approached conventional levels of significance (p<0.10)

approached near significance (p=0.06)

approached our criterion of significance (p>0.08)

approached significant (p=0.11)

approached the borderline of significance (p=0.07)

approached the level of signiﬁcance (p=0.09)

approached trend levels of significance (p0.05)

approached, but did reach, significance (p=0.065)

approaches but fails to achieve a customary level of statistical significance (p=0.154)

approaches statistical significance (p>0.06)

approaching a level of significance (p=0.089)

approaching an acceptable significance level (p=0.056)

approaching borderline significance (p=0.08)

approaching borderline statistical significance (p=0.07)

approaching but not reaching significance (p=0.53)

approaching clinical significance (p=0.07)

approaching close to significance (p<0.1)

approaching conventional significance levels (p=0.06)

approaching conventional statistical significance (p=0.06)

approaching formal significance (p=0.1052)

approaching independent prognostic significance (p=0.08)

approaching marginal levels of significance p<0.107)

approaching marginal significance (p=0.064)

approaching more closely significance (p=0.06)

approaching our preset significance level (p=0.076)

approaching prognostic significance (p=0.052)

approaching significance (p=0.09)

approaching the traditional significance level (p=0.06)

approaching to statistical significance (p=0.075)

approaching, although not reaching, significance (p=0.08)

approaching, but not reaching, significance (p<0.09)

approximately significant (p=0.053)

approximating significance (p=0.09)

arguably significant (p=0.07)

as good as significant (p=0.0502)

at the brink of significance (p=0.06)

at the cusp of significance (p=0.06)

at the edge of significance (p=0.055)

at the limit of significance (p=0.054)

at the limits of significance (p=0.053)

at the margin of significance (p=0.056)

at the margin of statistical significance (p<0.07)

at the verge of significance (p=0.058)

at the very edge of significance (p=0.053)

barely below the level of significance (p=0.06)

barely escaped statistical significance (p=0.07)

barely escapes being statistically significant at the 5% risk level (0.1>p>0.05)

barely failed to attain statistical significance (p=0.067)

barely fails to attain statistical significance at conventional levels (p<0.10

barely insignificant (p=0.075)

barely missed statistical significance (p=0.051)

barely missed the commonly acceptable significance level (p<0.053)

barely outside the range of significance (p=0.06)

barely significant (p=0.07)

below (but verging on) the statistical significant level (p>0.05)

better trends of improvement (p=0.056)

bordered on a statistically significant value (p=0.06)

bordered on being significant (p>0.07)

bordered on being statistically significant (p=0.0502)

bordered on but was not less than the accepted level of significance (p>0.05)

bordered on significant (p=0.09)

borderline conventional significance (p=0.051)

borderline level of statistical significance (p=0.053)

borderline signiﬁcant (p=0.09)

borderline significant trends (p=0.099)

close to a marginally significant level (p=0.06)

close to being significant (p=0.06)

close to being statistically signiﬁcant (p=0.055)

close to borderline signiﬁcance (p=0.072)

close to the boundary of significance (p=0.06)

close to the level of significance (p=0.07)

close to the limit of significance (p=0.17)

close to the margin of significance (p=0.055)

close to the margin of statistical significance (p=0.075)

closely approaches the brink of signiﬁcance (p=0.07)

closely approaches the statistical significance (p=0.0669)

closely approximating significance (p>0.05)

closely not significant (p=0.06)

closely significant (p=0.058)

close-to-signiﬁcant (p=0.09)

did not achieve conventional threshold levels of statistical significance (p=0.08)

did not exceed the conventional level of statistical significance (p<0.08)

did not quite achieve acceptable levels of statistical significance (p=0.054)

did not quite achieve significance (p=0.076)

did not quite achieve the conventional levels of significance (p=0.052)

did not quite achieve the threshold for statistical significance (p=0.08)

did not quite attain conventional levels of significance (p=0.07)

did not quite reach a statistically significant level (p=0.108)

did not quite reach conventional levels of statistical significance (p=0.079)

did not quite reach statistical significance (p=0.063)

did not reach the traditional level of signiﬁcance (p=0.10)

did not reach the usually accepted level of clinical significance (p=0.07)

difference was apparent (p=0.07)

direction heading towards significance (p=0.10)

does not appear to be sufficiently significant (p>0.05)

does not narrowly reach statistical significance (p=0.06)

does not reach the conventional significance level (p=0.098)

effectively significant (p=0.051)

equivocal significance (p=0.06)

essentially significant (p=0.10)

extremely close to signiﬁcance (p=0.07)

failed to reach significance on this occasion (p=0.09)

failed to reach statistical significance (p=0.06)

fairly close to significance (p=0.065)

fairly significant (p=0.09)

falls just short of standard levels of statistical significance (p=0.06)

fell (just) short of significance (p=0.08)

fell barely short of significance (p=0.08)

fell just short of significance (p=0.07)

fell just short of statistical significance (p=0.12)

fell just short of the traditional definition of statistical significance (p=0.051)

fell marginally short of significance (p=0.07)

fell narrowly short of significance (p=0.0623)

fell only marginally short of significance (p=0.0879)

fell only short of significance (p=0.06)

fell short of significance (p=0.07)

fell slightly short of significance (p>0.0167)

fell somewhat short of significance (p=0.138)

felt short of significance (p=0.07)

flirting with conventional levels of significance (p>0.1)

heading towards significance (p=0.086)

highly significant (p=0.09)

hint of significance (p>0.05)

hovered around signiﬁcance (p = 0.061)

hovered at nearly a significant level (p=0.058)

hovering closer to statistical significance (p=0.076)

hovers on the brink of significance (p=0.055)

in the edge of significance (p=0.059)

in the verge of significance (p=0.06)

inconclusively significant (p=0.070)

indeterminate significance (p=0.08)

indicative significance (p=0.08)

is just outside the conventional levels of significance

just about significant (p=0.051)

just above the arbitrary level of signiﬁcance (p=0.07)

just above the margin of significance (p=0.053)

just at the conventional level of significance (p=0.05001)

just barely below the level of significance (p=0.06)

just barely failed to reach significance (p<0.06)

just barely insignificant (p=0.11)

just barely statistically signiﬁcant (p=0.054)

just beyond significance (p=0.06)

just borderline significant (p=0.058)

just escaped significance (p=0.07)

just failed significance (p=0.057)

just failed to be significant (p=0.072)

just failed to reach statistical significance (p=0.06)

just failing to reach statistical significance (p=0.06)

just fails to reach conventional levels of statistical significance (p=0.07)

just lacked significance (p=0.053)

just marginally significant (p=0.0562)

just missed being statistically significant (p=0.06)

just missing significance (p=0.07)

just on the verge of significance (p=0.06)

just outside accepted levels of significance (p=0.06)

just outside levels of significance (p<0.08)

just outside the bounds of significance (p=0.06)

just outside the conventional levels of significance (p=0.1076)

just outside the level of significance (p=0.0683)

just outside the limits of significance (p=0.06)

just outside the traditional bounds of significance (p=0.06)

just over the limits of statistical significance (p=0.06)

just short of significance (p=0.07)

just shy of significance (p=0.053)

just skirting the boundary of significance (p=0.052)

just tendentially signiﬁcant (p=0.056)

just tottering on the brink of significance at the 0.05 level

just very slightly missed the significance level (p=0.086)

leaning towards significance (p=0.15)

leaning towards statistical significance (p=0.06)

likely to be significant (p=0.054)

loosely significant (p=0.10)

marginal significance (p=0.07)

marginally and negatively significant (p=0.08)

marginally insignificant (p=0.08)

marginally nonsignificant (p=0.096)

marginally outside the level of significance

marginally significant (p>=0.1)

marginally significant tendency (p=0.08)

marginally statistically significant (p=0.08)

may not be signiﬁcant (p=0.06)

medium level of significance (p=0.051)

mildly signiﬁcant (p=0.07)

missed narrowly statistical significance (p=0.054)

moderately significant (p>0.11)

modestly significant (p=0.09)

narrowly avoided significance (p=0.052)

narrowly eluded statistical significance (p=0.0789)

narrowly escaped significance (p=0.08)

narrowly evaded statistical significance (p>0.05)

narrowly failed significance (p=0.054)

narrowly missed achieving significance (p=0.055)

narrowly missed overall significance (p=0.06)

narrowly missed significance (p=0.051)

narrowly missed standard significance levels (p<0.07)

narrowly missed the significance level (p=0.07)

narrowly missing conventional significance (p=0.054)

near limit significance (p=0.073)

near miss of statistical significance (p>0.1)

near nominal significance (p=0.064)

near significance (p=0.07)

near to statistical significance (p=0.056)

near/possible significance(p=0.0661)

near-borderline significance (p=0.10)

near-certain signiﬁcance (p=0.07)

nearing significance (p<0.051)

nearly acceptable level of significance (p=0.06)

nearly approaches statistical significance (p=0.079)

nearly borderline significance (p=0.052)

nearly negatively significant (p<0.1)

nearly positively significant (p=0.063)

nearly reached a significant level (p=0.07)

nearly reaching the level of significance (p<0.06)

nearly significant (p=0.06)

nearly significant tendency (p=0.06)

nearly, but not quite significant (p>0.06)

near-marginal significance (p=0.18)

near-significant (p=0.09)

near-to-significance (p=0.093)

near-trend significance (p=0.11)

nominally significant (p=0.08)

non-insignificant result (p=0.500)

non-significant in the statistical sense (p>0.05

not absolutely significant but very probably so (p>0.05)

not as significant (p=0.06)

not clearly significant (p=0.08)

not completely significant (p=0.07)

not completely statistically signiﬁcant (p=0.0811)

not conventionally significant (p=0.089), but..

not currently significant (p=0.06)

not decisively significant (p=0.106)

not entirely significant (p=0.10)

not especially significant (p>0.05)

not exactly significant (p=0.052)

not extremely significant (p<0.06)

not formally significant (p=0.06)

not fully significant (p=0.085)

not globally significant (p=0.11)

not highly significant (p=0.089)

not insignificant (p=0.056)

not markedly significant (p=0.06)

not moderately significant (P>0.20)

not non-significant (p>0.1)

not numerically significant (p>0.05)

not obviously signiﬁcant (p>0.3)

not overly significant (p>0.08)

not quite borderline significance (p>=0.089)

not quite reach the level of significance (p=0.07)

not quite significant (p=0.118)

not quite within the conventional bounds of statistical significance (p=0.12)

not reliably signiﬁcant (p=0.091)

not remarkably signiﬁcant (p=0.236)

not significant by common standards (p=0.099)

not significant by conventional standards (p=0.10)

not significant by traditional standards (p<0.1)

not significant in the formal statistical sense (p=0.08)

not significant in the narrow sense of the word (p=0.29)

not significant in the normally accepted statistical sense (p=0.064)

not significantly significant but..clinically meaningful (p=0.072)

not statistically quite significant (p<0.06)

not strictly significant (p=0.06)

not strictly speaking significant (p=0.057)

not technically significant (p=0.06)

not that significant (p=0.08)

not to an extent that was fully statistically signiﬁcant (p=0.06)

not too distant from statistical significance at the 10% level

not too far from significant at the 10% level

not totally significant (p=0.09)

not unequivocally significant (p=0.055)

not very definitely significant (p=0.08)

not very definitely significant from the statistical point of view (p=0.08)

not very far from significance (p<0.092)

not very significant (p=0.1)

not very statistically significant (p=0.10)

not wholly significant (p>0.1)

not yet significant (p=0.09)

not strongly significant (p=0.08)

noticeably signiﬁcant (p=0.055)

on the border of significance (p=0.063)

on the borderline of significance (p=0.0699)

on the borderlines of significance (p=0.08)

on the boundaries of signiﬁcance (p=0.056)

on the boundary of signiﬁcance (p=0.055)

on the brink of significance (p=0.052)

on the cusp of conventional statistical significance (p=0.054)

on the cusp of significance (p=0.058)

on the edge of significance (p>0.08)

on the limit to significant (p=0.06)

on the margin of significance (p=0.051)

on the threshold of significance (p=0.059)

on the verge of significance (p=0.053)

on the very borderline of significance (0.05<p<0.06)

on the very fringes of signiﬁcance (p=0.099)

on the very limits of significance (0.1>p>0.05)

only a little short of significance (p>0.05)

only just failed to meet statistical significance (p=0.051)

only just insignificant (p>0.10)

only just missed significance at the 5% level

only marginally fails to be significant at the 95% level (p=0.06)

only marginally nearly insignificant (p=0.059)

only marginally significant (p=0.9)

only slightly less than significant (p=0.08)

only slightly missed the conventional threshold of significance (p=0.062)

only slightly missed the level of significance (p=0.058)

only slightly missed the significance level (p=0·0556)

only slightly non-signiﬁcant (p=0.0738)

only slightly significant (p=0.08)

partial significance (p>0.09)

partially significant (p=0.08)

partly significant (p=0.08)

perceivable statistical significance (p=0.0501)

possible significance (p<0.098)

possibly marginally significant (p=0.116)

possibly significant (0.05<p>0.10)

possibly statistically significant (p=0.10)

potentially significant (p>0.1)

practically significant (p=0.06)

probably not experimentally significant (p=0.2)

probably not significant (p>0.25)

probably not statistically significant (p=0.14)

probably significant (p=0.06)

provisionally significant (p=0.073)

quasi-significant (p=0.09)

questionably significant (p=0.13)

quite close to significance at the 10% level (p=0.104)

quite significant (p=0.07)

rather marginal significance (p>0.10)

reached borderline significance (p=0.0509)

reached near significance (p=0.07)

reasonably significant (p=0.07)

remarkably close to significance (p=0.05009)

resides on the edge of significance (p=0.10)

roughly significant (p>0.1)

scarcely significant (0.05<p>0.1)

significant at the .07 level

significant tendency (p=0.09)

significant to some degree (0<p>1)

significant, or close to significant effects (p=0.08, p=0.05)

significantly better overall (p=0.051)

significantly significant (p=0.065)

similar but not nonsigniﬁcant trends (p>0.05)

slight evidence of significance (0.1>p>0.05)

slight non-significance (p=0.06)

slight significance (p=0.128)

slight tendency toward significance (p=0.086)

slightly above the level of signiﬁcance (p=0.06)

slightly below the level of signiﬁcance (p=0.068)

slightly exceeded signiﬁcance level (p=0.06)

slightly failed to reach statistical signiﬁcance (p=0.061)

slightly insignificant (p=0.07)

slightly less than needed for significance (p=0.08)

slightly marginally significant (p=0.06)

slightly missed being of statistical significance (p=0.08)

slightly missed statistical significance (p=0.059)

slightly missed the conventional level of significance (p=0.061)

slightly missed the level of statistical significance (p<0.10)

slightly missed the margin of significance (p=0.051)

slightly not significant (p=0.06)

slightly outside conventional statistical significance (p=0.051)

slightly outside the margins of significance (p=0.08)

slightly outside the range of significance (p=0.09)

slightly outside the significance level (p=0.077)

slightly outside the statistical significance level (p=0.053)

slightly significant (p=0.09)

somewhat marginally significant (p>0.055)

somewhat short of significance (p=0.07)

somewhat significant (p=0.23)

somewhat statistically significant (p=0.092)

strong trend toward significance (p=0.08)

sufficiently close to significance (p=0.07)

suggestive but not quite significant (p=0.061)

suggestive of a significant trend (p=0.08)

suggestive of statistical significance (p=0.06)

suggestively significant (p=0.064)

tailed to insignificance (p=0.1)

tantalisingly close to significance (p=0.104)

technically not significant (p=0.06)

teetering on the brink of significance (p=0.06)

tend to significant (p>0.1)

tended to approach significance (p=0.09)

tended to be significant (p=0.06)

tended toward significance (p=0.13)

tendency toward significance (p approaching 0.1)

tendency toward statistical significance (p=0.07)

tends to approach signiﬁcance (p=0.12)

tentatively signiﬁcant (p=0.107)

too far from signiﬁcance (p=0.12)

trend bordering on statistical significance (p=0.066)

trend in a significant direction (p=0.09)

trend in the direction of significance (p=0.089)

trend significance level (p=0.06)

trend toward (p>0.07)

trending towards significance (p>0.15)

trending towards significant (p=0.099)

uncertain significance (p>0.07)

vaguely significant (p>0.2)

verged on being significant (p=0.11)

verging on significance (p=0.056)

verging on the statistically significant (p<0.1)

verging-on-significant (p=0.06)

very close to approaching significance (p=0.060)

very close to significant (p=0.11)

very close to the conventional level of significance (p=0.055)

very close to the cut-off for significance (p=0.07)

very close to the established statistical significance level of p=0.05 (p=0.065)

very close to the threshold of significance (p=0.07)

very closely approaches the conventional significance level (p=0.055)

very closely brushed the limit of statistical significance (p=0.051)

very narrowly missed significance (p<0.06)

very nearly significant (p=0.0656)

very slightly non-significant (p=0.10)

very slightly significant (p<0.1)

virtually significant (p=0.059)

weak significance (p>0.10)

weakened..significance (p=0.06)

weakly non-significant (p=0.07)

weakly significant (p=0.11)

weakly statistically significant (p=0.0557)

well-nigh signiﬁcant (p=0.11)

Reblogged this on Mr Epidemiology and commented:

A handy alphabetized list of various different ways of stating your results when p > .05! I think my favourites are “teetering on the brink of significance (P=0.06)” and “not significant in the narrow sense of the word (P=0.29)”

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Funny but read this: http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/GG_Null_2004.pdf

I love the 0.23 as “somewhat significant”. Um, no.

I would love to see the list sorted by p value instead of alphabetically.

Thanks for the chuckle – the list is indeed amusing, but the key point above is that the p-value threshold is arbitrary. This fact is now widely accepted, so a strict dichotomy between “significant” and “non-significant” no longer makes sense. It is a bit of a fudge – and one completely unnecessary if (e.g.) a Bayesian approach is adopted – but we prefer to see “significance” as a continuum; phrases such as “marginally significant” represent uncertainty in the threshold location and therefore do make some sort of sense.

It is *always* the case that calling p=0.49 “significant” and p=0.51 “non-significant” is just plain silly.

Good reply Mark. I concur completely and often tell clients to use the term marginally significant for values close to 0.05 (on either side). It is better that they talk about these things then just sweep them under the rug and ignore them because they are “not significant”.

Thanks for the comment. I think there is confusion over the threshold being arbitrary, i.e. 0.05 rather than 0.06, and the arbitrariness of having a threshold at all.

If we agree that there isn’t really a need for a threshold and just discuss the p-values directly, then ‘significant’ and ‘marginally significant’ both become meaningless.

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Reblogged this on JHND NOTES: The Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics Editor's Blog and commented:

Prospective authors and students take note. Not significant means not significant, no matter how much you wish it otherwise.

Sorry, a result that is not statistically significant can indeed have practical or clinical significance. It’s the flip side of the typical admonishment about statistical significance not necessarily having practical significance. So, it has nothing to do wishes. It’s odd to hold your viewpoint when NHST itself will reveal that a test statistic that results in a p less than .05 is not significantly different from many values of a test statistic that result in p values greater than .05. It seems that the wishing is that the values on each side of the .05 fence are actually different from one another. You can wish all you want, but a great number of them are not, by your own criterion.

That should read: ” that a test statistic that results in a p less than .05 is not significantly different from many values of a test statistic that result in p values greater than .05. ”

I must have deleted the end of the sentence while editing.

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in APA there should not be a 0 before the decimal point

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I made a word cloud of the list with all the variations of the word “significant” removed and creative spelling standardized:

http://www.wordle.net/show/wrdl/6789217/Still_Not_Significant

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To say a result is either significant or not is glib. First of all many people, especially non scientists, will confuse statistical significance with substantive significance ( economic, psychological whatever). So what if an effect is statistically significant but tiny? Statistical “insignificance” means you can’t reject the null of 0 but you can’t reject other hypotheses too: so why the fetish about one? The standard error tells you how *precisely* determined the result is.

Say you measure two effects, A with size 1 and confidence interval (-1,3) and B with size 0.5 with CI (0.3, 0.8) . Would you really conclude that B has a bigger effect than A? This would be silly but the practise of only counting “significant” results commonly leads to this.

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Truly, G-d loves the .06 nearly as much as the .05!

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@Aaron Levitt–I agree! Love to know the journals these were published in.

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I incorporated your list in a test of significance (implemented in R). Every time the p-value is between 0.12-0.5 it randomly selects one of you “p excuses” :)

http://sumsar.net/blog/2014/02/a-significantly-improved-test/

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Reblogged this on Le blog de Michaël.

I’ve never understood the statisticians’ overly dogmatic objections to the way these p-values are discussed. All a p-value of 0.05 means is there’s a 95% chance that the hypothesis was indeed working. A p-value of 0.051 means there was a 94.9% of the hypothesis was working. I agree that if one prespecifies 0.05 as the threshold then, yes, the p-value of 0.051 is not significant. But is to say it was “almost significant” such a travesty? Statisticians often treat a p-value of 0.051 the same as a p-value of 0.70…which makes little sense to anyone with some connection to logic. Should, for example, FDA have pretty strict inflexibility on p-values? Yes!! But please relax and use common sense when talking about the way some talk about these statistics. And, no, I’m not defending the p=0.29 example!! :)

No, the p-value of 0.05 doesn’t mean what you’re saying at all. You’re committing a logical fallacy. It tells you about the probability of your results if the null were actually true and has little to nothing to say about the probability that your alternative is true. Furthermore, statistical tests have philosophies of that underpin the very nature of the test and what you can take out of them for meaning. The 0.05 is arbitrary, yes, but modifying what values are important after you calculate them complete changes their meaning.

What you do imply is that you want a couple of different kinds of uses of p-values and that’s fine (although it’s not great as an evidence measure it’s been used as one); but people need to be clear a priori how they’re using them. Thus, statements like, “almost significant” usually have very little meaning because they’re post hoc efforts to cram one philosophy of statistics into another. State at the outset that your p-value is a measure of evidence, that you have no pre-conceived test per se, don’t mention testing, and you’d be fine using 0.06 in a qualitative statement about how believable the null is. But trying to do that afterwards is corrupts the value of doing any testing at all.

You might want to look at Gigerenzer’s “Mindless Statistics”.

This stems from the hybrid logic used in psychology in general. Rather than using a Fisherian “Report P-observed, replicate” or a Neymon-Pearsonian “Fix alpha, set sample size sufficient to detect departures of interest”, we have a “Pseudo fix alpha, mumble something about significance, complain a lot about the procedure not detecting a difference despite not doing prospective investigation about how the procedure would do”.

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This and “Marginally Significant” reblogged on http://couchpsychologist.wordpress.com/2014/04/23/the-futility-of-significance-statistical-that-is/.

“(results are either significant or not and can’t be qualified)”

How’s that? There’s no reason why you would have to make a clear cut decision, for or against, in a scientific paper. It’s perfectly legitimate to report that a p-value of 0.051 for example provides weak (but clearly inconclusive) evidence against the H0.

But in all the examples the authors elected to do exactly that: make a clear-cut decision based on a threshold they themselves chose.

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Do yo have a list of references from where you picked up this phrasing?

Yes – all of the expressions are from journal articles

Indeed. Do you have a list of those references matched to the expressions? Would be handy.

It would be a lengthy and joyless task to assemble them, but I might get around to it one day

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In psychology, given how frequently we’re doing things like assuming normality when what we’ve got is approximate normality, it is definitely worth reporting nearly-significant results as such; minor violations of our assumptions and similar things are ubiquitous, so .002 away from significance is absolutely not the same as .5 away. For exactly the same reason that .001 and .05 are two different significance levels and we don’t just say “significant”.

Can I make a t-shirt of this list? I promise not to wear it to dissertation defenses.

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Curious what anyone would have to say about this article by David Healy: http://apt.rcpsych.org/content/12/5/320.full.pdf+html

Reblogged this on Gauss17gon and commented:

A must for a stats student starting research!

This blog was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I’ve found something which helped me.

Many thanks!

Hi there – was this review ever published formally? I’d love to cite it if it were published in a journal somewhere.

Thanks!

You’re right, I really should get around to writing this up…it can be cited as a blog entry though.

Thank you for this blog – just what I needed!

I feel that this article is a bit misguided (although the list is funny). In the real world there is no single godlike level for alpha beyond which all p values are meaningless. Surely we can decide the level we are willing to accept for alpha based on our knowledge of the experiment and the data or we can ignore any arbitrary cutoff completely and just report the actual p value and explain what it means in a way the reader can understand?

Well, that’s sort of the point: all the studies here had 0.05 as their level of significance. So it is arbitrary, but the authors all chose it. And then decided it was a movable feast only when the results weren’t what they were hoping for. The wording wasn’t chosen to help the reader understand; it’s a rhetorical device to mislead the reader.

I encourage my psychology students to comment on non-significant trends if p<.10 (unless they already have enough significant results to address). If the result is over .05 then it isn't significant at the accepted level but does provide weak evidence for an effect (i.e. weaker than if the p value was significant).

Following today's xkcd (1478) I'm wondering if there's a better way of putting it. However, I don't like most of the phrases in the above list, so maybe I should just stick with the ones I already use (non-significant trend, weak evidence for an effect).

I think that would be a mistake, starting with the notion of ‘non-significant trends’. There’s no ‘trend’ at all, just a ‘near-miss’, which is not the same thing. ‘Trend’ implies some movement towards significance, and you don’t get this from a single p-value. ‘Non-significant trend’ just means the same thing as ‘non-significant’, and ‘weak evidence for an effect’ is misleading. The distribution of p under the null hypothesis is flat, i.e. a p value of 0.06 is just as likely as 0.96; neither is a ‘trend’.

Whether or not there is a trend in the data (e.g. one mean is different from the others) is separate from the significance test which calculates the probability that the observed trend might have been due to chance, if the null hypothesis of no differences is correct. A value just above .05 still means that the null hypothesis is likely to be incorrect, but the evidence is weaker than the accepted cut-off.

That’s correct, but then what is the cut-off for? Treating the p-value as a sliding scale is justifiable, but the concept of ‘significance’ is then unnecessary. It’s inconsistent to choose a cut-off and then only apply it if the results go the way we want: ‘weak evidence for an effect’ is not the same as ‘by the standards set in this experiment the evidence was insufficient to conclude that there was an effect’.

I misread your phrasing on ‘trend’ as being applied to the significance, but I think the same argument applies (and also, I wouldn’t describe a difference in means as a trend).

I agree that “non-significant trend” doesn’t really fit when talking about the effect of an IV with 3+ levels. However, I stand by my advice to students about appropriately reporting effects that just miss the .05 criteria. If the effect is significant at the .05 level then then should discuss it with confidence. If the evidence for an effect is only significant at .10 then they can make tentative conclusions about it. I don’t like “weakly significant” because, as you say, any given p value is either significant at the given level or it isn’t. On the other hand, changing “there was a significant effect of IV on DV (…, p=.040)” to “there was weak evidence for an effect of IN on DV (…, p=.060)” is a reasonable and simple change to make.

Two caveats.

1) I am making no comment here about whether a study with no significant results is publishable in a peer reviewed journal, though perhaps it would make sense for small studies showing weak evidence for effects to be accepted to reduce the negative correlation between study size and reported effect size. My advice is primarily directed at psychology students completing coursework and dissertations.

2) If a Bonferroni correction has been applied to keep the family-wise error rate at .05 then I would ignore all effects with p values of over .05 and use “weak evidence” to refer to effects where p<.05 but is not under the corrected value.

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